Energy bills in the UK are once again under pressure, raising concerns for households. According to Cornwall Insight, the Ofgem price cap for July to September is now forecast to reach £1,837 for a typical dual-fuel household, marking a 12% increase from April’s cap. Earlier predictions in March had suggested bills could climb as high as £1,973, but the latest estimate offers slight relief.
This lower forecast reflects a moderate easing in wholesale energy costs after sharp spikes earlier in the year. However, markets remain highly volatile, and UK households are still expected to face rising gas and electricity bills. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to push up oil and gas prices, adding further pressure.
Cornwall Insight has warned that a rise in July is “effectively unavoidable”, as current high wholesale prices are already factored into the calculations. There is also little indication that prices will return to pre-war levels in the near future.
The energy regulator Ofgem is set to announce the next price cap by May 27. Previously, the cap was reduced by 7% to £1,641 for April to June, largely due to the government’s move to cut bills by £150 through the removal of green subsidies.
With another increase expected in July, the government is considering additional targeted support measures as part of its contingency plans. It has also extended electricity bill support to 10,000 businesses, offering some relief to companies that are not covered by the household price cap.
Experts believe energy prices are unlikely to return to normal until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. This critical route carries around 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply. Disruptions, along with attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, have pushed crude oil prices as high as $120 per barrel since the conflict began.
