According to data providers Kpler and Vortexa, the shipment is on the Libyan-flagged “Maetiga” ship and is expected to arrive in the UK from Saudi Arabia around Thursday. They also said that because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, there are no other cargoes from the region going to the UK.
The UK has gotten at least half of its jet fuel from the Middle East in the past few months. This is because they stopped getting it from Russia after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and because domestic refining has been going down.
The government has said that people shouldn’t worry about supply problems and should book their summer vacations as usual. However, that message is becoming more and more mixed with warnings from people in the industry about how the Iran war could lead to shortages.
After the FT reported on Tuesday, Donald Trump posted “a suggestion” for countries like the UK that “can’t get jet fuel”: “Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. Go get your own oil!”
There isn’t much official information about jet fuel storage, but UK industry experts and analysts say that airlines will start to feel the effects at the end of April if the supply problems continue.
Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at the consulting firm Rystad Energy, said, “Market understanding is that fuel shortages are not far away in some countries” and “higher prices will trickle through the entire supply chain and will be felt by all.”
A senior jet fuel manager said that the supply disruption has been “quite a mess.” According to price reporting agency Argus Media, benchmark prices for jet fuel in north-west Europe closed at $1,744 per tonne on Friday. This is about twice as high as they were before the war.
There have been an average of eight jet fuel shipments from the Middle East to the UK at any given time lately. Vortexa said that the last time there was only one was in 2021.
The Strait of Hormuz is almost completely closed right now, and Europe gets about 40% of its jet fuel through it. The UK gets jet fuel directly from the Middle East, but it also gets extra supplies from other places, mostly through the Netherlands and Belgium.
Lars van Wageningen, the research and consulting manager at data provider Insights Global, said that Belgium and the Netherlands were probably in the same boat as the UK, with not many Middle Eastern cargoes expected to arrive in the near future.
If traders who supply airlines in the UK can bid enough to move cargoes that are currently going to other countries, the threat of shortages could still be lessened. Van Wageningen said that European buyers will look for more jet fuel from refineries in West Africa and the US.
On Monday, a cargo of jet fuel from Nigeria arrived in Milford Haven, UK. Matt Stanley, who is in charge of market engagement for Kpler in the Emea and Apac regions, said, “The system doesn’t stop; it reshuffles.” “It’s more about changing routes and prices than a lack of supply.”
Vortexa said that the competition for jet fuel cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Yanbu port, which don’t go through the Strait of Hormuz, was getting “stronger every day.” Analysts say that those who can pay more will now be looking for other places to buy.
